What are heat waves, El Nino and how does it affect agriculture and your pocket?
Synopsis
Wheat is the main rabi crop in India. The government has projected a record wheat output of 112.2 million tonnes for the 2022-23 crop year (July-June). India is the second-largest producer of wheat, and is one of the largest exporters of food for the world.
India witnessed abnormal rise in temperature in March 2022 and February this year. As per reports, the higher temperatures impacted crops, fruits, vegetables and animals in the nine states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra last year. With higher than usual temperatures reported from several parts of the country this year, there are speculations that agriculture production might get impacted this year too.
Wheat is the main rabi crop in India. The government has projected a record wheat output of 112.2 million tonnes for the 2022-23 crop year (July-June). India is the second-largest producer of wheat, and is one of the largest exporters of food for the world.
Agriculture also employs a significant section of the population, and is a vital source of sustenance for millions of people. Despite the large-scale development of soil-water-and crop-based technologies to optimize and sustain agricultural productivity in recent years, extreme weather events such as heat waves, a recurring feature of climate variability, have become a common and serious concern for farmers as well as common people.
What are heat waves?
Heatwaves are characterized by large amplitude anticyclonic flows. These silent killers increase evaporation rates over water resources, thereby depleting resources and trapping radiation over dry soil. Severe heat waves cause forest fires and can be largely detrimental for urban spaces, leading to the Urban Heat Island phenomenon due to heat-absorbing surfaces, trapping hot air between architectural spaces and poor vegetation cover.
How does heat waves impact agriculture?
They increase water demand for irrigation, which can strain water resources in affected areas. Reduced crop yields, droughts, increased pest and disease pressure and soil degradation are some common effects. Indian states like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi are prone to heatwaves and stand to be severely impacted.
The increasing prevalence of climate change presents a challenging situation for the agricultural industry. For every 1 degree increase in temperature, the yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut and potato are expected to decline by 3-7%.
Climate change is anticipated to turn the wheat-producing Indian lowlands into a heat-stressed, short-season production environment, greatly impacting potential yields. The surging thermal stress further impacts levels of feed intake in livestock, reducing animal productivity, and adversely affecting their physiology and disease resistance. Similarly, poultry and fishery are also affected by the resulting increase in temperature.
This year the things may get worse as there are prediction of EL Nino effect affecting Indian monsoon and agriculture. India had an above normal monsoon in the last 4 years. Climate phenomena predict an El Nino in 2023.
What is El Niño and how does it affect Indian agriculture & monsoon?
The El Niño phenomenon is the warming of the Pacific Ocean between South America and the Date Line, accompanied by high air surface pressure in the western Pacific. This phenomenon occurs when the Pacific Ocean trade winds die out and ocean temperatures become unusually high. El Niño results in reduction of the earth’s rotational rate, directly increasing the length of the day, and is observed every 3-5 years. A critical impact of the phenomenon is its effect on rains, which for India would lead to experiencing a severe pre- and post-monsoon phenomenon, affecting the agricultural sector.
How does these climate changes affect your pocket?
India’s agrarian economy stands to suffer from its effects on agricultural activities, as a situation of shortage of commodities would lead to rising inflation. Major crops such as rice, sugar, cereals, pulses and more can be adversely affected by El Niño.
The phenomenon is expected to reduce annual monsoon rainfall in areas of Haryana, with a possibility of increased winter rainfalls in some districts, meanwhile playing a significant role in altering monsoon overset over states like Kerala. The Kharif food grain yields are also expected to be significantly impacted for the country in FY24. Other widely affected sectors include FMCG, fertilizer, sugar, dairy, and overall rural consumption. It is worth noting that the impact of El Niño can vary from year to year, and is influenced by other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
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